CHARTS: Análisis predictivo y el gráfico de velas japonés (Candlestick Chart)

D3 Candlestick Chart

El gráfico de velas japonés (‘Japanese candlestick chart’) es una gráfica de barras avanzada y densa de información utilizada para mostrar los movimientos del precio de índices bursátiles, productos derivados o tipos de cambio y establecer una predicción en su curva.

Gráfico de velas o de Candlesticks
Gráfico de velas o de Candlesticks

Generalmente, cada vela muestra un día; así, un gráfico mensual suele recoger los veinte días de negocio representados en 20 velas que muestra los valores de apertura, de cierre, máximos y mínimos.

Hoja de excel que recoge en columnas los valores de apertura, cierre, máximo y mínimo.
Hoja de excel que recoge en columnas los valores de apertura, cierre, máximo y mínimo.
Estructura de las velas o 'Candlesticks'
Estructura de las velas o ‘Candlesticks’

Origen japonés
Este tipo de gráfico fue desarrollado en el siglo XVIII por Munehisa Homma (1724-1803). En 1697 se estableció el primer mercado de futuros en Osaka: la bolsa del arroz de Dojima (‘Dojima Rice Exchange’). En 1755, el comerciante escribió el libro orientado hacia la psicología de los mercados ‘The Fountain of Gold – The Three Monkey Record of Money’.

Munehisa Homma  (1724-1803) fue un comerciante de arroz japonés; el padre del gráfico de velas.
Munehisa Homma (1724-1803) fue un comerciante de arroz japonés; el padre del gráfico de velas.
Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques: A Contemporary Guide to the Ancient Investment Techniques of the Far East, Second Edition
Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques: A Contemporary Guide to the Ancient Investment Techniques of the Far East, Second Edition
Las velas japonesas (Finanzas (valor)) Tapa blanda – 15 mar 2014 de Steve Nison  (Autor)
Las velas japonesas (Finanzas (valor)) Tapa blanda – 15 mar 2014
de Steve Nison .

Steve Nison, analista técnico, lo recogió en su libro ‘Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques‘ – 1991, New York Institute of Finance– y lo dio a conocer en Occidente (el libro se conoce como ‘la biblia del gráfico de velas’).

Patrones clásicos del gráfico de velas
Patrones clásicos del gráfico de velas

Análisis visual y predicción de los mercados
Los gráficos de vela se han popularizado entre analistas financieros y bursátiles porque ofrecen una imagen visual muy clara de la evolución de los mercados. En comparación con un gráfico de barras normal, las velas ofrecen más profundidad en la información y en la dirección del mercado, los datos son más precisos y visualmente son más informativos. De un vistazo se obtiene una imagen de los movimientos de una acción y los analistas pueden comparar los precios de apertura y cierre, así como también los valores máximos y mínimos.

El uso del color (blanco y negro, rojo y verde) ayuda enormemente a distinguir las tendencias y establecer patrones e hipótesis, especialmente a corto plazo.

Gráfico de Heinkin-Ashi
Gráfico de Heinkin-Ashi

El caso del gráfico de vela Heikin-Ashi (Heikin-Ashi Candlestick)
En japonés, ‘Heikin’ significa ‘media’ y ‘Ashi’ es ‘paso’. Heinkin-Ashi representa los pasos medios de los precios y es parecido al gráfico japonés normal. En el primero el color de los rectángulos es blanco cuando el cierre del día anterior está por debajo de la apertura del día (tendencia alcista). Ala inversa, si el cierre del día anterior está por encima del cierre actual, entonces el rectángulo se visualiza en negro (tendencia a la baja). Los analistas financieros interpretan los múltiples patrones visuales que ofrecen cada gráfica para obtener el sentimiento del mercado (indecisión, Doji, de martillo, invertido, el ahorcado, el chico abandonado, nubes oscuras, estrella de la noche).

En el gráfico de velas Heiken Ashi, los patrones quedan más claros cuándo el precio está subiendo y cuándo el precio está bajando pero, según algunos analistas, se pierde precisión a cambio de comodidad visual.


Referencias

Gráficos de Velas o “Candlesticks”

Heikin-Ashi Candlesticks

Introduction to Japanese Candlestick Patterns, Traderslog (PDF)

Manual de Candlestick, Ustin (pdf en castellano).

Candlestick charts using D3, André Dumas

D3 Candlestick Chart, Codepen

GRAPHICS: How to Run The World, Parag Khanna

Gracias por visitar el sitio de Juantxo Cruz

En el libro How to Run The World: Charting a Course to the Next Renaissance
Parag Khana

The world is entering a perfect storm of calamities: a great game for scarce natural resources, financial instability, environmental stress, and failing states. In some respects, it isn’t far off from that medieval landscape of almost a millennium ago. It is a multi-polar, multi-civilizational world in which every empire, city-state, multi-national corporation or mercenary army is out for itself. Esteemed adventurer-scholar Parag Khanna’s How to Run the World is a bold account of our current global chaos and a road-map for creating a truly resilient and stable world.

Parag Khanna is a leading geo-strategist, world traveler and author. Presently a Senior Research Fellow at the New America Foundation, he is author of the international best-sellers How to Run the World: Charting a Course to the Next Renaissance (2011) and The Second World: Empires and Influence in the New Global Order (2008). In 2008, Parag was named one of Esquire’s “75 Most Influential People of the 21st Century,” and one of fifteen individuals featured in WIRED magazine’s “Smart List.”

Visto en Periodistas21

GRAPHICS: Infografía y literatura

Gracias por visitar el sitio de Juantxo Cruz

“La infografía proviene de información gráfica, es decir, pretende explicar con imágenes y no con palabras. Unas veces simulamos cosas que aún no existen (edificios, etc.), otras veces recreamos hechos (un accidente, una batalla, etc.) y otras, buscamos desentrañar el significado oculto de las cosas, hallar patrones de conducta como por ejemplo que cada x tiempo, una película de guerra gana el óscar y coincide con un gobierno tal. Ésta es la parte que a mí más me gusta. Para todo esto nos servimos de programas de ordenador y de elementos como flechas, tartas, barras, líneas de tiempo, dioramas, etc. Los esquemas realizados para ‘La virgen albanesa’ aúnan mis dos pasiones: infografía y literatura. La primera me da de comer y la segunda me da de soñar”.

Isabel González, infografista de EL MUNDO, en el blog Taller y Escritura Creativa.

Gracias por visitar el sitio de Juantxo Cruz

El cuento y la infografía.

BOOK GEMS: From Hieroglyphics To Isotye, Neurath

Gracias por visitar el sitio de Juantxo Cruz

From Hieroglyphics To Isotye
Otto Neurath
1944
AQUI EN AMAZON.
35$

Fantástico enlace dónde se pueden ver los trabajos de Otto Neurath, Marie Neurath (Reidemeister), Ivan Ivanitskii y Gerd Arntz.

Gracias por visitar el sitio de Juantxo Cruz

Gesellschaft und Wirtschaft
Leipzig: Bibliographisches Institut, 1930, 300 x 450 mm, (I.C. 7.1 Ges)
Gesellschaft und Wirtschaft was a monumental collection of one hundred statistical charts printed on loose leaves. Due to a generous commission from the publisher, money was no object and the Vienna team expanded by hiring outside consultants for this publication.
The chart above (no.56) is titled ‘Numbers of motor vehicles in the world’ (USA and rest of the world). Even if one cannot read German, the subject reveals itself through the ‘speaking signs’ of the automobiles, each of which represents 2.5 million vehicles. The grey/brown ‘guide-picture’ (as Neurath called it) at the top of the chart gives further context ‘outside the root picture’, in this case indicating the greater industrial development of automobile production in the USA.

Gracias por visitar el sitio de Juantxo Cruz

‘Tips for tots’
cover design for book, Otto and Marie Neurath, 1944.

Tips for tots’ was a handcrafted mock-up made by the Neuraths as part of a proposal for a series of children’s books sent to Max Parrish in 1944. The mock-up was accompanied by a paper written by Otto Neurath, ‘Isotype books for children’. In it he compares Isotype charts with photographs: charts, he said, are a way of encouraging reasoning based on visual statements, while photographs are a way of making children familiar with the appearance of landscapes, animals, plants.
‘Tips for tots’ introduces Iso and Typie, two characters who had adventures in an Isotype world. This world was designed to bring Iso and Typie into contact with complex phenomena of a kind that would benefit from explanation according to Isotype principles: map-making, tornadoes, radio transmission. By ‘Isotype world’, Neurath meant an Isotype vocabulary: consistent symbolic forms for people, animals, houses, a restricted colour scheme and a particular way of organizing these elements. (SW)
area of research: Isotype childrens’ books (Walker)

Gracias por visitar el sitio de Juantxo Cruz

Voter registration in the Western Region of Nigeria
booklet cover, Marie Neurath / Isotype Institute, 1955, 205 x 165 mm, (I.C. 7.1, ‘N’)
Some of the most significant work done by the Isotype Institute as consultants to the Western Region of Nigeria involved the registration of voters, and instructions on how and where to vote. In addition to booklets produced for successive election cycles in 1956 and 1957 (above, for 1956), Isotype designed accompanying posters that encouraged participation, and identified registration offices and polling stations (below, in Yoruba: 510 × 760 mm).

Gracias por visitar el sitio de Juantxo Cruz

Isotype ‘Picture dictionary’
leaf from binder, Gerd Arntz, 1929-33, 300 x 225 mm, (I.C. 4/2)
The Isotype ‘Picture dictionary’ was a working reference file of all pictograms designed by Gerd Arntz. It was begun in Vienna and continually updated. Above is one of the sheets in the category ‘Man’, dating from the early period at the Gesellschafts- und Wirtschaftsmuseum in Vienna. It shows the grammatical aspect of Isotype pictogram design, in which a symbol can be qualified, or made into a kind of compound noun, by combining it with another. The symbols within the human figures here indicate different kinds of profession.

Gracias por visitar el sitio de Juantxo Cruz

The Language of the Global Polis
Otto Neurath
Amazon.
35$

Hardcover: 176 pages
Publisher: NAi Publishers (July 1, 2008)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 9056623508
ISBN-13: 978-9056623500
Product Dimensions: 10.1 x 7.9 x 0.8 inches

Austrian sociologist Otto Neurath was a seminal Modernist figure. Much attention has been given to his achievements in the fields of graphic design and philosophy (Neurath was a member of the Vienna Circle, founder of the Museum of Society and Economy, inventor of the ISOTYPE pictorial system and champion of the Unity of Science movement), yet his involvement with urbanism and architecture has been all but ignored. From 1931 onwards, Neurath collaborated with the International Congress of Modern Architecture and its chief exponents–Cornelis van Eesteren, Sigfried Giedion, Le Corbusier and Laszlo Moholy-Nagy–to develop an international language of urban planning and design. More experimentally, throughout the 1930s a fascination with visual media led to an attempt to franchise the Museum of Society and Economy by establishing international satellite museums. This volume contains a text by curator and writer Nader Vossoughian, which offers a fresh perspective on one of the most versatile intellectuals of the twentieth century.

Gracias por visitar el sitio de Juantxo Cruz

The Transformer: Principles of Making Isotype Charts [Paperback]
Marie Neurath (Author), Robin Kinross (Editor)
Amazon.
20$

Paperback: 126 pages
Publisher: Hyphen Press; 1 edition (September 16, 2009)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0907259405
ISBN-13: 978-0907259404
Product Dimensions: 8.2 x 4.9 x 0.3 inches

Isotype (International System of Typographic Picture Education) is a system of pictograms designed to communicate complex information in a nonverbal way. Developed in 1936 by a team of sociologists lead by Otto and Marie Neurath, this process of “transforming” data into visual form has strongly influenced the fields of graphic design. The Transformer: Principles of Making Isotype Charts is the first English-language primer on Isotype the foundation of the modern-day pictographic signals found in airports, train stations, highway signs, and computer interfaces. Featuring illustrated examples and essays, including a previously unpublished essay by Marie Neurath, The Transformer is a long-overdue appreciation of an important moment in the history of visual communication.

Gracias por visitar el sitio de Juantxo Cruz

Otto Neurath: Philosophy between Science and Politics (Ideas in Context) [Paperback]
Nancy Cartwright (Author), Jordi Cat (Author), Lola Fleck (Author), Thomas E. Uebel (Author)

Amazon.
58-100$

Paperback: 308 pages
Publisher: Cambridge University Press; 1 edition (May 12, 2008)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0521041112
ISBN-13: 978-0521041119
Product Dimensions: 8.8 x 6 x 0.6 inches

BOOKS: Todos los demonios están aquí

Gracias por visitar el sitio de Juantxo Cruz

All Devils Are Here: The Hidden History of the Financial Crisis Bethany McLean y Joe Nocera.

Hardcover: 400 pages
Publisher: Portfolio Hardcover (November 16, 2010)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 1591843634
ISBN-13: 978-1591843634

“Hell is empty, and
all the devils are here.”
-Shakespeare, The Tempest

LOS DEMONIOS, según los autores:

• Angelo Mozilo, the CEO of Countrywide, who dreamed of spreading homeownership to the masses, only to succumb to the peer pressure-and the outsized profits-of the sleaziest subprime lending.

• Roland Arnall, a respected philanthropist and diplomat, who made his fortune building Ameriquest, a subprime lending empire that relied on blatantly deceptive lending practices.

• Hank Greenberg, who built AIG into a Rube Goldberg contraption with an undeserved triple-A rating, and who ran it so tightly that he was the only one who knew where all the bodies were buried.

• Stan O’Neal of Merrill Lynch, aloof and suspicious, who suffered from “Goldman envy” and drove a proud old firm into the ground by promoting cronies and pushing out his smartest lieutenants.

• Lloyd Blankfein, who helped turn Goldman Sachs from a culture that famously put clients first to one that made clients secondary to its own bottom line.

• Franklin Raines of Fannie Mae, who (like his predecessors) bullied regulators into submission and let his firm drift away from its original, noble mission.

• Brian Clarkson of Moody’s, who aggressively pushed to increase his rating agency’s market share and stock price, at the cost of its integrity.

• Alan Greenspan, the legendary maestro of the Federal Reserve, who ignored the evidence of a growing housing bubble and turned a blind eye to the lending practices that ultimately brought down Wall Street-and inflicted enormous pain on the country.

Just as McLean’s The Smartest Guys in the Room was hailed as the best Enron book on a crowded shelf, so will All the Devils Are Here be remembered for finally making sense of the meltdown and its consequences.
About the Author
Bethany McLean is a writer for Vanity Fair and the coauthor of The Smartest Guys in the Room: The Amazing Rise and Scandalous Fall of Enron. Before joining Vanity Fair, she wrote for Fortune for thirteen years (most recently as an editor at large) and spent three years working in the investment banking division of Goldman Sachs. She lives in Chicago.

Joe Nocera is a business columnist for The New York Times and a staff writer for The New York Times Magazine. He spent ten years at Fortune as a contributing writer, editor at large, executive editor, and editorial director. He has won three Gerald Loeb awards for excellence in business journalism and was a finalist for a Pulitzer Prize in 2006. He lives in New York.

BOOKS: Más allá del capital, Meszaros

Gracias por visitar el sitio de Juantxo Cruz

Debate sobre el futuro de Cuba el pasado 8 de noviembre.
WPOST.
AP. Javier Galeano.

Abril de 2011: El Partido Comunista Cubano debatirá sobre su futuro ideológico para los próximos cinco años.

“The Sixth Party Congress will concentrate on a solution to our economic problems” () “make fundamental decisions on how to modernize the Cuban economic model and adopt the paths for economic and social policy of the party and the revolution”, Raúl Castro.

Gracias por visitar el sitio de Juantxo Cruz

Beyond Capital
Istvan Meszaros
La crisis estructural del capitalismo.
El libro de cabecera de Chavez.

Istvan Meszaros left his native Hungary after the Soviet invasion of 1956. He is professor emeritus at the University of Sussex, where he held the chair of philosophy for fifteen years. Meszaros is author of The Challenge and Burden of Historical Time, Beyond Capital, The Power of Ideology, The Work of Sartre, and Marx’s Theory of Alienation.

‘El secreto de la vida es la honestidad y el juego limpio, si puedes simular eso, lo has conseguido’. Groucho Marx.

BOOKS: Gray Lady Down, William McGowan

Gracias por visitar el sitio de Juantxo Cruz

Gray Lady Down
William McGowan
2010
What The Decline and Fall of TNYT means for America.
25,95$

Hardcover: 300 pages
Publisher: Encounter Books (November 16, 2010)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 1594034869
ISBN-13: 978-1594034862

Product Description
The New York Times was once considered the gold standard in American journalism and the most trusted news organization in America. Today, it is generally understood to be a vehicle for politically correct ideologies, tattered liberal pieties, and a repeated victim of journalistic scandal and institutional embarrassment.

In Gray Lady Down, the hard-hitting follow up to Coloring the News, William McGowan asks who is responsible for squandering the finest legacy in American journalism. Combining original reporting, critical assessment and analysis, McGowan exposes the Times’ obsessions with diversity, “soft” pop cultural news, and countercultural Vietnam-era attitudinizing, and reveals how these trends have set America’s most important news icon at odds with its journalistic mission—and with the values and perspectives of much of mainstream America.

Gray Lady Down considers the consequences—for the Times, for the media, and, most important, for American society and its political processes at this fraught moment in our nation’s history. In this highly volatile media environment, the fate of the Times may portend the future of the fourth estate.

——————————————————————————–

Gracias por visitar el sitio de Juantxo Cruz

Coloring the News: How Political Correctness Has Corrupted American Journalism
William McGowan
2003
15$

Paperback: 262 pages
Publisher: Encounter Books; 1 edition (May 1, 2003)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 1893554600
ISBN-13: 978-1893554603
Product Dimensions: 9.2 x 6 x 0.9 inches

From Publishers Weekly
In a book likely to spark controversy, and with the relentlessness of a prosecutor, McGowan (Only Man Is Vile: The Tragedy of Sri Lanka), a fellow at the conservative Manhattan Institute, presents case after case in which, he contends, reporters and editors got stories wrong or ignored topics worthy of coverage because of their liberal ideologies and their fear of offending African-Americans, gays or feminists. (In many cases, he says, the journalists later admitted their own timidity.) Both in hiring practices and story coverage, multicultural journalism is “oversimplifying complicated issues” and “undermining the spirit of public cooperation and trust,” McGowan writes. On race, he points to what he calls “soft” coverage of Washington, D.C., mayor Marion Barry and Rev. Louis Farrakhan’s Million Man March. But some of his arguments are inflammatory. Lumping “Gay and Feminist Issues” together in one chapter, he compares the coverage of the Matthew Shepard murder and that of another murder by two gay pedophiles in light of what he calls “the sanctity of the gays-as-victims script.” McGowan also cites biases in reporting on the abortion issue, attributing them to the fact that over 80% of journalists surveyed say they are pro-choice. Detractors will note that journalists rarely cover issues without biases, and that it’s unlikely that journalists of the past covered most causes including the 1960s struggle for civil rights that McGowan holds up as a model for race relations in the United States with the objectivity he trumpets. Skeptics of multiculturalism will love this book, and lefties will love to hate it. (Nov. 15)Forecast: Encounter Books knows how to reach its conservative audience. More generally, this will generate controversy among media mavens.

———————-

William McGowan is the author of “Coloring the News: How Crusading for Diversity has Corrupted American Journalism.”

William McGowan is the author of Only Man Is Vile: The Tragedy of Sri Lanka (Farrar, Straus & Giroux). He has reported for Newsweek International and the BBC and has written for the New York Times, the Washington Post, Columbia Journalism Review and other national publications. A regular contributor to the Wall Street Journal, he is currently a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. He lives in New York City.